Why I Don’t Think Google’s Netbook Will Be Free

LinuxJournal tried to raise a good point the other day, suggesting that ChromeOS netbooks shold be given away for free–but with built-into-the-OS ads (via). Fine. They’re entitled to their opinion. But I’m entitled to mine–and my opinion is that it’s not going to happen.

The first issue is cost. Glyn Moody spends just under half the article building up to this sentence:

I’m no engineer, so I find it hard to come up with an exact build cost for a minimalist Chromium OS netbook, but I imagine we’re talking ten or twenty dollars, rather than one or two hundred.

Eh…excuse me? I’m no engineer, I find it hard, I imagine…Where the heck did that figure come from? Mr. Moody, I would forgive you if you were a blogger, but you’re a journalist! Investigate! Find out facts! I’ll even give you some: From various interviews, I have learned that there is almost no profit in the sale of actual computers–retailers make the bulk of their money on extended warranties and accessories. And even if we disregard that, selling computers for “one or two hundred” dollars when they cost “ten or twenty” is a one thousand percent profit. I find it very hard to believe that that’s being pulled off.

I could end this right here. I could say, “There’s no way Google’s giving away netbooks, because netbooks are just too darn expensive.” But there’s a few other points too:

Number two: Permanence. As in: ChromeOS cannot be grafted onto a device permanently. If the netbook has a USB port and a BIOS worth its electrons, it would take any reasonably technical person about thirty minutes to put, say, Ubuntu Netbook Remix on their free netbook. Good bye ads, hello profit loss. And even if Google tries to get tricky, I predict it will take the cracker/homebrew community less than a week to get ChromeOS off of there. Remember the DirecTV card cracking?

Numbers three and four: Quantity and use. Maybe you can correct me in the comments, but I really can’t think of a system in which Google could assure that every person could receive one–but not more than one–device. People would not be above faking their name, using a PO Box, borrowing their neighbor’s address or stealing someone’s identity. Which in and of itself wouldn’t be a problem, except that having multiple devices would result in using an individual device less frequently–meaning less ad views per netbook. I’m a blogger. I know how ads work, and you’d be surprised about how many impressions are needed for one person to accumulate ten to twenty dollars (using Mr. Moody’s estimate) or even more than that (my deduction). Then multiply that by two, three or six devices, and you’ve got a big chunk of cash that needs to be accumulated by one person seeing non-maddening ads in order for Google to break even, never mind profit.

Footnote: Keep in mind that part of Google’s mantra is having low-key, not-too-intrusive ads. Which just makes monetization harder.

So I really don’t think we’re on the Eve of the Free Netbook. But in case I’m wrong…can I have one?

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