Respone to “Why You’ll Use a Tablet. Yes YOU!”

In his article “Why You’ll Use a Tablet. Yes YOU!” (via), Mike Elgan says that tablets are going to be the Next Big Thing in technology. I think he’s right. But I also think most of the reasons he cited are complete garbage. Let’s look at them:

1. Tablets will become hobbyist dream gadgets. People have been talking about computer-powered home automation for about the past sixty years. Bill Gates has been advocating it for about twenty-five. I don’t see how the emergence of tablets is going to solve a bigger issue–the lack of interacing available in today’s appliances. I also don’t see how a tablet is markedly better than a small laptop or netbook. Yes, removing an uneccesary layer of abstraction (the mouse) is good, but I think it’s evolutionary, not revolutionary, and won’t be a big factor in the emergence of practical home automation. Elgan also seems to think that some kind of amateur robotics industry is going to emerge, but I call shenanigans. I’ve been working on building this robot from xkcd, with the intention of using my netbook-sized Vaio as the brain, and I’m here to say that controlling motors with a laptop is very technically demanding. And I don’t see how touch screens are going to change that whatsoever.

2. They will be optimized for specific tasks. Um…no they won’t. They’ll be all-purpose media players, ebook readers, web browsers, small document creators (especially if there’s a physical keyboard), game consoles, and just about everything else computers do. Elgan’s big things are that he think they’ll be used for documentation/ebook viewers (what’s the matter with a netbook? Or a Kindle? They’re both cheaper and just as (if not more) effective.) and–get this–cameras. How in the world does a $500 tablet do a better job at surveillance than a $300 netbook? Or a $5 old laptop? The Thinkpad 390E I got at a garage sale would be a great networked webcam operator. And let me tell you something–the tablet I just got (HP Pavilion tx1000) is going to be used for all-purpose computing. I’m not going to turn it into a glorified microscope or nannycam.

3. You will be compelled by apps we can’t now predict. I’m no seer, I couldn’t really argue with this even if I wanted to. And as it happens, I think he’s darn right. Third-party apps/extensions/plugins are probably the second-most important technological development of the decade (after Web 2.0). Look at Firefox. Look at Chrome–which is just now getting true popularity due to its matured extensions. Look at Linux’s package managers, especially the Ubuntu Software Center. Look at the iPhone and Android App Stores. Look at gedit, vim, and Emacs’s plugins. The list goes on and on.

4. Tablets will have uses that don’t involve replacing something you’re already doing. I suppose he’s right (again–I can’t predict the future), but his example is pretty weak. I used to have a circa 1999 Handspring PDA that had an app that let me draw custom buttons and shoot an IR beam into it that was assigned to a button. It was cool messing with my family, who initially didn’t know I could do that, but besides that it wasn’t a terribly useful feature. I suppose having a preview of  several channels would be cool, but we have the technology to do that today (most laptops have IR ports) and it isn’t really happening. Which makes me think that people just don’t really care that much about it, and are fine with the already-pretty-fancy remotes and cable/satellite systems they have today.

5. Tablets will be open. What he was trying to say is that some tablets will be open. Which is great for open source enthusiasts like me, but I don’t see it having a profound effect on the market. Laptops with Linux (or *BSD, HaikuOS, FreeDOS, etc.) are open too, but are only responsible for a few percentage points of the market.

6. Your company may buy one for you. Fine.

7. Tablets will become ideal for IT pros. This is a direct quote:

[list of examples for which IT pros use laptops] Everybody uses laptops.

Tablets will do all this in a single package.

Um…Mr. Elgan…laptops do all that in a single package too. As you yourself pointed out. And IT pros are the type who will want excellent hardware specs, not stunted tablet insides. And a non-external keyboard. And IT guys are also smart enough to realize that, while fun, touch screens aren’t actually exceptionally more useful than  a standard LCD+mouse combo.

8. Tablets will be better netbooks than netbooks. They’ll also be more expensive, and may lack stuff like Flash/Macromedia/Java support and a keyboard. Yes, the latter limitations will be overcome, but I think cost will still be a barrier. I’m sure a lot of people will be willing to pay a bit more for a tablet than a netbook, but a lot won’t. I know I wouldn’t.

9. Tablets will get huge. …and expensive. And I’m certainly not going to bring a 27-inch tablet everywhere I go.

10. Tablets will be cheap! I’m sure the price will diminish, but I’m also sure the tablets of tomorrow will be more expensive and less featureful (besides the touchscreen) than the netbooks of tomorrow, so I think this is a smaller deal than he’s trying to put across. Yes, a lot of people will pay an extra one or two hundred dollars for a touchscreen, but a lot of people will see it as a useless luxury.

“Who knows? Maybe you’ll even use an iPad. ” Maybe I will, but I certainly won’t spend $500 for it when I already have a laptop. If I received one as a gift, I would be absolutely ecstatic, but I don’t see that happening and I don’t see myself buying one.

I’d also like to point out that Elgan left out one of the most useful applications of tablets–the ability to write or draw with them. I’m definitely going to use my HP tablet to take class notes (formatting, diagrams, and strange symbols are made so much easier), and I know artists are also huge, huge fans of them.